Could Black Support for Trump Send Him Back to the White House in 2020?

Could black American voters’ support for President Donald Trump have an impact on the 2020 election? Pundits have talked and written about two polls that show higher favorability numbers for the president among black Americans.

The poll numbers don’t tell the whole story, of course. Favorability is one thing; actual votes are something else. Star Parker, founder and president of the Center for Urban Renewal and Education wrote about these polls in her column last week.

I like these kinds of reports. But I wonder how much of reality they are really capturing.

The Wall Street Journal, for instance, reports on new polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation showing outsize support from blacks for “Medicare for All.”

According to this report, 74% percent of blacks compared with 69% of Hispanics and 44% of whites support a single-payer health care plan.

Even when told that there would be a high likelihood that such a plan would mean eliminating private insurance and raising taxes, a large majority of blacks still support the idea.

This isn’t exactly the kind of polling data I anticipate from a population that is supposedly discovering that socialism is not a good idea.

Star said the GOP and black and Hispanic voters should all “wake up” to the facts. The party and these voting blocs can help each other.

The Washington Examiner reported on the polls as well.

“Not surprisingly, all African Americans do not hate Trump!” pollster Jonathan Zogby said in sharing his data with us.

But Trump critics don’t buy it. Democratic and Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher is one. He rejected the reasoning that black support is growing and suggested that the polls are wrong.

“Those reasons would assume that it’s real, which it isn’t. To have a conversation about the reason is giving it credibility,” he said.

Naysayers aside, there is room for hope.

In all cases, while black support for Trump dropped when an alternative was offered, it was higher than the 8% he received in 2016 and maybe enough to push him across the finish line first in 2020.

Against Joe Biden, Trump receives 12% of the black vote. Against Sen. Bernie Sanders, it was 14%. And against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, it was 17%.
…
“The only story here is that the support is increasing,” said senior campaign official Katrina Pierson. “It’s on the rise. It’s not decreasing. It’s going in the right direction,” she said.

Whether the “black vote” will have a positive impact on the 2020 election in President Trump’s favor remains to be seen. Who knows what could happen if the GOP went after these segments of the population and members of these populations started voting in their economic interests?

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