Could black voters help Donald Trump win the White House? How much will they hurt?
“To win, Trump must either improve his standing with black and brown voters or he must compensate for the minorities who oppose him by winning a near-historic share of whites,” political analyst David Paul Kuhn wrote in the New York Daily News.
The demographic shift makes the White House more difficult for Republicans to reach. Kuhn wrote that Trump “is uniquely suited to potentially lose Hispanics at near-historic levels and still win. Blacks could hold the key.”
— BLACKS FOR TRUMP (@BlacksForTrump) May 23, 2016
Trump has to win only a minority of minority voters, Kuhn said, especially in swing states Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
“In 2012, the black vote was about five times the size of the Hispanic vote in Ohio and North Carolina. In Virginia, it was about four times larger. In Pennsylvania, it was twice the size. Blacks also outnumber Hispanics in smaller states that could impact the electoral outcome, such as Wisconsin.”
— The Blacks For Trump (@theblacks4Trump) December 8, 2015
Democrats know they have the “black vote” in the bag, but Kuhn contended that Trump needs less than a third of that vote to pose a threat.
“If Trump were to win roughly 15% of African American support, a President Trump becomes significantly more possible.”
President Barack Obama brought black voters to the polls. Will they turn out in high numbers for Hillary Clinton?
“In 2008, Obama won blocs of voters at levels that Clinton is unlikely to mimic, or prove able to compensate for. Eight years ago, Obama earned historic youth support. By contrast, in the 2016 primary, it’s Bernie Sanders who is monopolizing young voters.”
— Tanzina Vega (@tanzinavega) May 25, 2016
Although having a biracial candidate running for president encouraged more blacks to head to the polls, the Congressional Black Caucus has launched an effort to address “voter suppression,” in reference to common-sense protections against fraud. The blacks-as-perpetual-victims scenario is laughable and ridiculous on its face, but it keeps the civil rights industry in business.