Amir Tsarfati: Operation Rising Lion

Shalom from Israel! Some may wonder how I can wish peace from a land that is currently at war. That is because my peace does not come from governments or weapons or treaties. My peace comes from the Almighty God who watches over His people. He who neither sleeps nor slumbers has His hand on Israel, the same as He does on all whom He has called His own. Thus, even as I hear the fighter jets launching constantly just a few miles from my house, my heart can be at rest in the Lord.

“Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God” (Psalm 20:7).

I’m going to get right into it today. This will be a special edition newsletter dedicated solely to the war with Iran. If you want to watch me talk about the latest news from the warfront, check out my Q&A from yesterday, “Israel-Iran War: Everything You Need to Know”. Also, please subscribe to my Telegram channel to keep up on the blow-by-blow of events.

The Origins of the War
It all began with a nation that wants to live in peace and have the world recognize its right to exist. This nation, my nation, was officially recognized by many countries, although loved by few. Israel’s problem has always been with the violent determination of those enemies who reject our right to be. Prior to February 1979, Iran was in the friend of Israel category, but with the coming of Ayatollah Khomeini and his radical, Islamist regime the government in Tehran quickly became our worst enemies.

Destroying Israel became Iran’s number one priority, more important than caring for their own people. When Iranians resisted, they were met with the heavy hand of the Basij, a paramilitary police force within the country who were tasked with ensuring Sharia law is upheld and resistance to the regime is put down. For outside enemies, Khomeini’s government created the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which became the primary military branch of the nation. Within the IRGC is the Quds Force, which combines both intelligence and special forces and is the elite fighting element of the military.

Once the Islamic regime was firmly established, it began to establish itself as a regional superpower. Its methodology was to create, train, and finance proxy terrorist militias in the Middle East to destabilize governments and to attack Israel. Thus, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and all the smaller Shiite militants in Iraq, Syria, and the surrounding nations were born. This gave Iran a layer of distance and deniability as Israel was forced to fend off attack after attack from the proxies.

From all appearances, Iran had developed itself into a formidable foe. European superpowers and most U.S. administrations bought into the strength propaganda that Iran put out. But then Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and the apparently mighty Hezbollah soon collapsed. This led to the fall of Syria and the collapse of militia after militia. Suddenly, everyone was able to see that Iran’s power was simply a house of cards, and it was starting to collapse.

Meanwhile, the undercurrent than had most nations feeling sketchy about Iran was the possibility of them acquiring a nuclear weapon, because no one had any doubt that they would find a reason to use it. The Islamist regime swore they were not building a bomb, but time after time they were proven to be liars. But everyone was too scared of Iran’s growing power and Middle Eastern influence to do anything about it. But with the house of cards now falling apart, Israel realized it was time to strike. They asked the United States about it, and President Donald Trump said, “Hold off. Maybe I can get a deal.” Trump told Ayatollah Khamenei that Iran had 60 days to agree to a deal that would end the Iran nuclear program. Iran blustered and threatened and delayed, while Israel bided its time. The 60 days passed, and on day 61, Israel attacked.

The Beginning of the War
Operation Rising Lion launched on Friday, June 13. Israel’s intelligence, confirmed by other international sources, made it clear that Iran was rushing toward a nuclear weapon as fast as they could. If action was not taken immediately, it would soon be too late. The Israeli Defense Forces attacked. Assisting them was the Mossad, using methodologies so creatively brilliant that I can’t wait to include some of them in next May’s Nir Tavor thriller release.

Four key areas were targeted. Nuclear facilities with precision strikes on Natanz, Parchin, and Isfahan which crippled Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons research capabilities. Air defense systems, including key radar sites and S-300 systems, were destroyed in Hamedan, Tehran, and Tabriz, leaving Israel with air superiority over western Iran. Regime and military objectives were targeted including senior commanders, the IRGC headquarters, and missile depots in Kermanshah and Khorramabad. Energy infrastructure was hit with a massive explosion at South Pars gas refinery in Kangan marking Israel’s first time striking one of Iran’s critical oil and gas sectors. Despite all of the strikes in and around Iran’s nuclear facilities, the IAEA has confirmed that there have been no radiation leaks, with the Bushehr and Khondob energy-only reactors remaining untouched and secure.

These first strikes were crippling to Iran. Within moments, nearly 20% of Iran’s missile launching capabilities were taken out. That number has reached 66% now due to the constant hunting of launchers by the Israel Air Force (IAF), leaving only 100 or so remaining. This is why the number of missiles launched at Israel decreases each day, despite Iran having thousands stored. IRGC planes were destroyed on the ground, anti-aircraft systems were blown up, and the top military decision-makers were unable to do anything about it because many had already been taken out in targeted strikes the first night while they still slept. So far, the list of dead military men and scientists include (but are certainly not limited to):
•    Hossein Salami – head of IRGC
•    Amir Ali Hajizadeh. head of IRGC missile program
•    Mohammad Bagheri, head of intelligence and the country’s top-ranking military official
•    Mohammed Kazemi, head of IRGC intelligence
•    Mohammad Hassan Mohaqiq, deputy head of IRGC intelligence
•    Mohsen Bakri, head of Quds Force Intelligence
•    Abu al-Fadl Nikouei, deputy head of Quds Force intelligence
•    Gholam Ali Rashid – commander of the general staff of the armed forces
•    Ali Shadamani – commander of the general staff of the armed forces, who served in the position only four days after the death of Rashid
•    Fereidoun Abbasi, leading nuclear scientist and former head of country’s Atomic Energy Organization
•    Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, head of Iran’s Islamic Azad University in Tehran, along with four other scientists
•    Ali Shamkhani, top military and nuclear advisor

This “cutting the head off the snake” strategy caused Prime Minister Netanyahu to dub it the Pagers Operation on steroids. In addition, the IAF attacked Natanz at the beginning of the operation. At that time, its massive array of centrifuges were spinning, enriching uranium. When centrifuges are hit while they are spinning, they break into a thousand pieces. If Iran had known 10 minutes earlier, they would have shut them down. This was one of the most important outcomes of the initial attack.

Israel also hit the Iranian TV building, greatly affecting the regime’s ability to spread propaganda. Yesterday, after limited television was restored, the programming was hacked and a video was shown calling for people to take to the streets against the regime.

There were three main goals in this attack by Israel. First, remove the missile program. Second, destroy the nuclear weapons program. Third, deactivate Iran’s proxy militias. You’ll notice that not included in this list is toppling the Iranian regime. Not that Israel would be against it, but it’s just not where our priorities lie. Regime toppling is more of a CIA kind of thing, and we’ll see if President Trump allocates any resources to giving Iran a bit of a pre-1979 makeover.

How It Stands Now
Tehran is a ghost town. While Iran is purposely targeting Israeli civilians, Israel has warned ahead of time the people who live in various neighborhoods of Tehran and other cities that they intend to strike. Why is Israel striking civilian areas at all? Because the IRGC is using their gutter proxies’ tactics and using their own people as human shields. Beginning October 8, 2023, never before has a military taken such stringent precautions to protect enemy civilian lives as has the IDF. Doing so has put Israeli soldiers at risk and allowed many enemy combatants to flee with civilian populations, but Israel’s military does not waver from those standards.

Sadly, as I mentioned above, Iran is specifically aiming their ballistic missiles and drones at civilian populations in Israel. The drones have been ineffective. Of the 1000 that have been launched from Iran since the beginning of the campaign, only 200 reached Israel’s borders and all of those were intercepted. The Islamists have had more success with their missiles. Of the 400 ballistic missiles launched, 30 have hit civilian areas in Israel. There have been 25 deaths as a result, with 600 more wounded. In addition, 4000 have been forced to move out of damaged sites. Indicative of Iran’s strategy, there has not been a single Israeli soldier killed in their attacks.

Breaking News: Iran once again targeted Israeli civilian centers with their missiles this morning, hitting a total of eight sites. And, once again, the world saw God mitigating the damage. One of the places targeted was Soroka Medical Center in Beer Sheba, which took a direct hit. However, according to a doctor from the hospital, “Just yesterday we evacuated the old surgical building that took a direct hit today. It’s a great miracle.” God is good! The tyrants in Tehran must have realized how this would look on the world stage, so they trumped up a fake propaganda piece about how Israel stores military tanks under the hospital. This is the pot calling the kettle black. The regime that is using their own civilian neighborhoods as human shields for their missile launchers is accusing Israel, who stores their weapons in actual weapons depots, of employing human shields. It is a desperate lie made by desperate people. In the attack last night, six people were seriously injured, four in Holon and two in Ramat Gan. PM Netanyahu said, “We will exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran.” Between his lengthier statement and one made by Defense Minister Israel Katz, we can learn two things. First, a direct threat has been made toward the person of Ayatollah Khamenei. Second, Israel is working to undermine the tyrannical regime, while still stopping short of trying to overthrow it.

As mentioned above, the IAF continues to hunt mobile missile launchers. The biggest task yet to accomplish is the destruction of the Fordow nuclear site. This is an underground facility, and its entrance is well-protected by the surrounding terrain. Only the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator has the power to reach the depths of this facility. Also known as a bunker-buster, this 30,000 lb. bomb is too heavy to be deployed by the IAF. The U.S. would have to assist with a B-2 or B-52 to drop these massive explosives onto the Fordow facility. As it seems now, President Trump is willing to help. One major factor in convincing him was a message from U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. In his strong and convincing words, he sounded more pastor than ambassador, and I think there is no doubt that the Lord put him in his current position for such a time as this. Now, B-52s are being prepared at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Hopefully, President Trump will allow this assist to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program once and for all. Israel has already taken out the air defenses surrounding the Fordow facility, paving the way for U.S. bombers.

At the time of this writing, there are no negotiations planned between Israel and Iran or the United States and Iran. Currently, the U.S. and Iran are still just in a war of words, but it’s unlikely it will remain that way. Iran’s leadership fled to Oman, and Israel acquiesced to an American request not to bring down the planes as they flew. Meanwhile, diplomats from many countries have been seen fleeing Iran, with many crossing the northern border into Azerbaijan.

What Does the Future Look Like?
I can only predict based on what I’ve seen. I believe that Iran’s nuclear program will end, and I think it will end violently. While it’s possible that the ayatollahs could pull a quick moderated surrender out of their turbans, I don’t think they have the bravery or foresight to cut their losses. If they do ask for peace, I don’t believe Trump would accept it without a plan for the immediate destruction of their nuclear facilities, and I know that Netanyahu wouldn’t. My best guess is that the U.S. will give a bunker-busting assist against Fordow and any other underground facility that needs some deep penetration. Once the nuclear threat has ended, the missile development program is destroyed, and Iran’s proxy network has collapsed, I believe that Netanyahu will end Israel’s military action. Again, he isn’t looking to overthrow anyone. He just wants peace and safety for the Israeli people.

Will the Iranian people rise up against the regime? I hope so. The people of Iran are wonderful but they have been living under Islamist oppression for nearly half a century. There has never been this kind of opportunity for the masses to topple the government. But that’s not Israel’s job. Nor is it America’s, although some members of the three-letter agencies might disagree with me.

If Iran capitulates, will the terrorist proxies collapse? Absolutely. Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and all the others depend upon Iran for their existence. A broken Iran has no power to fund, arm, or protect them. I can easily see the Yemeni army rising up against the Houthis and finally bringing them down. Hezbollah is already on the verge of collapse, and it wouldn’t take much from Lebanon to bring them to an end. This is especially true if the ayatollahs are removed. No ayatollahs, no Middle Eastern radical Shi’a, no hope or purpose left for proxy militias.

Some wonder if, as believers of biblical prophecy, we really should be hoping for a radical change in the leadership of Iran. Wouldn’t that set back the timeline of the Ezekiel 38 war since a new regime might actually become friendly with Israel once again? Absolutely not! First, we should always choose good over evil. Already the gospel is miraculously getting into Iran under this evil regime. Imagine the open field for ministry if the gates are opened once again to the west! Second, God has His timeline. Us hoping for bad things to continue in order to hasten His coming is a sign that we don’t trust that He has it under control. It’s not like God has the war set to launch on July 7, but will suddenly have to postpone it because suddenly Iran is nice again. He has His time, and there is nothing we can do to change it.

We live in biblical times. Whether or not there is regime change in Iran, I believe the days foretold in Ezekiel, Daniel, and Revelation can launch at any moment. In the time we have left, we must be about our Father’s business, sharing His truth with those around us and loving one another as He has loved us. And we must be on our knees praying. We pray for God’s will to be done. We pray for His protection over the people of Israel and the many innocent people in Iran who want nothing to do with this oppressive regime. And, according to mandate given in Psalm 122:6, we pray for the peace of Jerusalem.

Awaiting His Return,

Amir Tsarfati

Photo credit: By Jaber Jehad Badwan – Jaber Jehad Badwan, CC BY-SA 4.0, link

Amir Tsarfati, a Jewish Christian, is the founder and president of Behold Israel, a news site to correct the scarcity in trustworthy reportage on issues and events impacting Israel, and to resolve the uncertainty about who or what to believe.

The views expressed in opinion articles are solely those of the author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by Black Community News.